I don’t gamble and never have but have friends who do. For them it’s a form of entertainment – no different than the hobbies I spend my money and time on. In this post I take a look at prop betting.
Prop bets let you wager on specific events within a game rather than the final score. Will Patrick Mahomes throw over 2.5 touchdowns? Will the first play be a run or pass? Will the game go to overtime? You bet yes or no on each proposition.
Books set a line for each prop. Player props dominate the market. Over/under on passing yards, rushing yards, receptions, touchdowns. Team props include first score type, total penalties, time of possession. Game props cover coin toss results, length of national anthem, halftime show events.
The standard vig applies: risk $110 to win $100. But prop betting multiplies the house edge through three ways that don't exist in traditional spread betting.
Take a typical player prop: Travis Kelce over/under 64.5 receiving yards. The book offers both sides at -110. Say the book's data shows Kelce has a 52% chance of going over. Fair pricing would charge less than -110 on the over side. Instead, both sides cost -110. The book wins twice: once by treating a 52-48 split like it's 50-50, and again by charging the standard vig on top.
Run the numbers: 100 bettors risk $110 on over, 100 bettors risk $110 on under. Total wagered is $22,000. Kelce finishes with 68 yards. The book pays $21,000 to over bettors. Profit is $1,000. That's the baseline 4.55% edge. But the book already knew Kelce was more likely to go over. The real edge jumps to 6% or 8% because they priced it wrong on purpose.
Information gaps widen this advantage. Books track snap counts, matchup data, and injury reports you don't see. They price props based on information you can't access. Fewer bettors can spot bad lines.
Correlation multiplies losses. Mahomes passing yards and Chiefs total points move together. Books let you parlay both and pay like they're unrelated. They're not. Each linked prop increases the edge.
Volume drives profit. A single NFL game offers 200+ prop bets versus 10 to 15 traditional bets. More bets mean more vig collected. Books don't balance action on props. They set wide margins and accept the risk because the edge covers losses.
Books win 55% to 60% on props versus 52% to 53% on spreads. You still need 52.38% accuracy to break even. Props make that harder while feeling easier. Books promote props because the math works better for them.
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