State of the Internet Industry

Yesterday, at the Web 2.0 Summit in San Francisco, Morgan Stanley analyst Mary Meeker gave an incredibly paced presentation on the state of the Internet industry. Here’s some highlights from her presentation compiled by Ben Parr at Mashable:

• 46% of Internet users live in five countries: the USA, Russia, Brazil, China and India.
• There are 670 million 3G subscribers worldwide, 136.6 million in the U.S. and 106.3 million in Japan.
• iOS devices reached 120 million subscribers in 13 quarters, far faster than Netscape, AOL or NTT docomo’s growth rates.
• Nokia and Symbian used to own 62% of the smartphone market (units shipped). Now it’s only 37%, mostly due to Android and iOS.
• The average CPM for social networking sites is at only $0.55. Meeker thinks this will increase and normalize in the next few years. She also believes that inventory on Facebook is one of the most under-monetized assets on the web.
• It took e-commerce 15 years to get to 5% of retail. Morgan Stanley predicts mobile should get to that same level in five years.
• Streaming video is up to 37% of of Internet traffic during traditional “TV hours.” Netflix is the biggest contributor to this, followed by YouTube.
• Seven of the companies that were in the top 15 publicly traded Internet companies in 2004 are not in that list in 2010.
• Interest payments and entitlement spending is projected to exceed government revenue by 2025. In other words, the U.S. government is facing a real financial crisis soon.

Here’s an embed of Mary's presentation:

Internet Trends Presentation -

Working from the Command Line

I’ve been involved in some recent curriculum discussions about an ICT end-device technician’s (think typical telecommunications and cable company technicians that come into your home) ability to work from the command-line on end-devices - things like computers, tablets, hand-helds, etc. Not routers not switches, and not servers!

There are two basic arguments - one side saying end-device technicians must be able to understand and work at the command prompt level while others believe modern operating systems do not require command prompt access the vast majority of time.

A couple of years ago I would have argued end-device technicians need to be able to work at the command prompt level. I’ve changed my mind though. I’m now sided with the group supporting the second argument - I personally don’t see the need to go deep into the command-line for end-device technicians.

I’ll use my own experience as an example of why I don’t think it is necessary. I’ve been using a Mac as my primary machine for the past 4 or so years, converting over in 2006. I lug a Mac everywhere I go, running lots of different apps and connecting to different networks in different ways. I’ve never once been required to go to a command prompt (using Terminal which is built in to the Mac OS) to fix something, make an installation tweak, connect, etc. I’ve been able to connect and get stuff working quickly and correctly (basically what most end-device ICT technicians do) without going to a command-line interface to get it done. All the applications I've needed to determine, test and troubleshoot connectivity are built into the operating system using Network Utilities. Modern end-device operating system user interfaces are so well designed now it’s just not something you need to do much any more. And then there’s the iPad and iPhone - if you jailbreak them you can get to UNIX command shell and run command-line utilities. I don’t know too many people that have done this though.

I do still find myself going to the command prompt on Windows machines but this may just be a force of habit, having moved from DOS to the Windows world over the years. It’s what I’m used to doing and I feel pretty comfortable with it. Almost everything I do though could be done within Windows, not using the command prompt.

It’s important to understand the command prompt is available and curriculum should cover basic usage. I can’t see spending a lot of time on it though.

Update on 11/15/10
Mike Q passed along a link to a nice post titled The Designer’s Guide to the OSX Command Prompt. Check it out if you use Terminal or are interested in learning how to use it.

Changing Times: Computers, Communications and Coca-Cola

I've been a developer, programmer, consultant, instructor, and consumer of personal computers and applications since the early days of CPM (pre-DOS). My early work started around January 1982 with the IBM PC on the connectivity and coding side, developing communications and custom business applications. Device-to-device communications was slow, commonly running at around 115 Kbps. I used to say I could make any computing device talk to any other computing device - just give me some cable, connectors, a few basic tools, an RS-232 Protocol Analyzer, breakout box, some paper clips to use as jumpers for cable configuration, and lots of Coca-Cola!

Times have changed - when I started almost 30 years ago, technicians typically drove commercial style vans full of tools and parts. Today a friend has a computer technology business where the technicians drive Mini Coopers. He's got one SUV to lug around bigger stuff but it does not see much road time. Times have really changed.

My current interest and technical focus is on connectivity (copper, optical and wireless), converged network (voice, video and data) services, end device hardware, operating systems and applications (that someone else has written!). Basically TCP/IP, Ethernet and everything involved in moving information securely, dependably and reliably from one device to another.

I still do take a thing or two apart these days though. Most recently I changed an iPod battery using a blow drier (to melt the glue holding device together) and guitar pick (get the thinnest picks you can find). Taking apart an iPad (why would anyone want to?) is not much different - here's a video from DirectFix.com showing how.

The days of vans full of technician tools, desktop type computers and field swappable components are either gone or rapidly going away. Some things do stay the same though - I'm still hooked on the Coca-Cola.

DSL = (D)ead, (S)low and (L)ousy?

That’s what a post over at Stop the Cap! called Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) after reviewing a report from Credit Suisse analyst Stefan Anninger. Here’s some highlights from that report:

• DSL will increasingly be seen as the “dial-up” service of the 2010s, as demand for more broadband speed moves beyond what most phone companies are willing or able to provide.
• DSL accounts sold in the United States top out at an average speed of just 4Mbps, while consumers are increasingly seeking out service at speeds of at least 7Mbps.
• A growing number of Americans understand cable and fiber-based broadband deliver the highest speeds, and consumers are increasingly dropping DSL for cable and fiber competitors. Any investments now may be a case of “too little, too late,” especially if they only incrementally improve DSL speeds.
• By 2015, cable companies will have secured 56 percent of the broadband market in the U.S. (up by 2 percent from today), phone companies will drop from 30 percent to just 15 percent, Verizon FiOS, AT&T U-verse, and wireless broadband will each control around 7 percent of the market, with the remainder split among municipal fiber, satellite, and other technologies.
• An online survey of 1,000 consumers in August found that less than half would consider going wireless only. The reasons? It’s too slow, too expensive and most plans have Internet Overcharging schemes like usage caps and speed throttles.

Regarding the FCC’s recent push for broadband reform by reclassifying broadband under Title II - Anninger suggests that Net Neutrality enforcement at the FCC is not a priority. Anninger goes on to say if action hasn’t been taken by winter or spring of next year, it’s a safe bet the Commission will never re-assert its authority.

Ray Ozzie - Dawn of a New Day

Back on June 15, 2006, Ray Ozzie took over the role of Microsoft Chief Software Architect from Bill Gates. In that role Ozzie has been responsible for oversight of the company’s overall technical strategy and product architecture pretty much behind the scenes, letting Steve Balmer handle much of the public face of the company. Ray's been an innovator in the computing industry for the past 35 years or so and probably best know for his role in the development of Lotus Notes.

He's in the process of transitioning out of Microsoft over the next few months and yesterday published a pretty significant memo to his Executive Staff and direct reports at Microsoft on his blog at ozzie.net. He titled the memo Dawn of a New Day. It's a must read - I bet I've read it at least 20 times over the course of today. I'll be reading it lots more. My favorite piece:

.... the power and responsibility to truly effect transformation exists in no small part at the edge. Within those who, led or inspired, feel personally and collectively motivated to make; to act; to do.

We get down on ourselves, the economy, politics, the day-to-day grind that just seems to come at us from all directions. Love Microsoft, hate Microsoft - it doesn't matter - give Ray's post a read - you'll end up reading it over and over again. You can find it linked here.

Mobile Broadband Spectrum Demand

The Federal Communication Commission has released a really interesting report titled Mobile Broadband: The Benefits of Additional Spectrum. The report takes a detailed look at the the current use, growth and need for new wireless broadband spectrum and also estimates the value created by making new spectrum available. Here's some background:

The National Broadband Plan has recommended that the FCC make available 500 megahertz (MHz) of new spectrum available for wireless broadband, including 300 MHz for mobile flexible use within five years. In addition, back on June 28, 2010, President Obama directed in an Executive Memorandum that 500 MHz of new spectrum be made available for mobile and fixed broadband use. The report is an attempt to make some predictions and justify the need for additional spectrum using estimates of various factors affecting aggregate mobile network capacity and mobile data growth. Here's some highlights:

• Mobile data demand will outstrip available wireless capacity in the near-term
• Mobile data demand is expected to grow between 25 and 50 times current levels within 5 years.
• Analysis suggests that the broadband spectrum deficit is likely to approach 300 MHz by 2014.
• Making available additional spectrum for mobile broadband would create value in excess of $100B in the next five years through avoidance of unnecessary costs.
• Making new spectrum available has historically taken between six and thirteen years

The report claims the $100B estimate of value creation is narrow, as it does not account for the broader social value created through mobile broadband, which some economists estimate as multiples of the private value. Here's some interesting data on how we are using current services and devices:

• 42% of consumers are estimated to own a smartphone, up from 16% three years ago.
• PC aircard users consume 1.4 gigabytes (GB) per month -- 56 times the amount of data used by a regular cell phone.
• AT&T, the exclusive US carrier of the iPhone, has seen mobile network traffic increase 5,000% over past 3 years.
• Users of Clearwire’s fourth generation (4G) WiMAX service consume 7 GB per month -- 280 times the amount of data used by a regular cell phone.
  

I like to think of broadband the way I think of garage space - you can never have too much. Be sure to check out the full FCC report linked here.

EMarketer Report: Corporate Blogging Goes Mainstream

I get asked a lot about blogging - especially by academic people. Typical questions/comments are usually along the lines of:

• Is it worth the time?
• I started a blog and wrote a few posts but nobody looked at it.
• I'm not sure what to write about.
• What's the value?
• What's the return on investment of the time it takes to post?
• Do you think other apps like Twitter and Facebook have replaced blogs?
• Is blogging dead?
  

I've found my blog to be one of our NSF ICT Center's most effective dissemination and marketing tools but still have a hard time answering these kinds of questions.

eMarketer just made it a little easier with a new report titled Corporate Blogging Goes Mainstream. I have not seen the full report but was able to pull some interesting information out of the report press release:

• Blogging has grown into a vital marketing tool for all types of companies, including Fortune 500 marketers and mom-and-pop retailers.
• 34% of US companies will use a blog for marketing purposes this year, a proportion that will continue to grow to 43% by 2012.
• While blogging still tends not to rate such high usage as newer forms of social media like Facebook and Twitter, it still has many strengths, including full control over branding and advertising, integration with all corporate web properties, no limits on post length and the existence of a full, easily searchable repository of information. And studies have noted blogging’s usefulness for lead generation.
• By October 2009, according to a Cision-led study, nearly two-thirds of US journalists reported they used blogs to publish, promote and distribute what they wrote. And according to PRWeek and PR Newswire, about a third of journalists used corporate blogs as research sources in 2010, up from a quarter last year.

Here's an interesting graphic from the eMarketer report showing the growth in marketing blogs from U.S. companies.

Blogging is not going away - it is just going mainstream. Looking to market your business, academic program or establish yourself as a subject matter expert? Don't forget about the blog.

Be sure to check out the eMarketer report press release.